Iran Sets Tough Conditions to Reopen Strait of Hormuz as US Deal Remains Elusive

Iran issues tough demands to reopen strait of Hormuz as deal still out of reach Iran has issued tough new demands for reopening the strait of Hormuz, while the United Arab Emirates said one of its ships was targeted by an Iranian missile, as a deal to open the strategic waterway remained out of reach on Saturday. Tehran’s politburo-like body known as the supreme national security council said the strait of Hormuz will not open until the United States corrects its behaviour, and its state broadcaster published a statement from the council’s ary, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who is also a commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The statement said that Iran’s demands included the removal of US forces from the region, the lifting of all sanctions, and a US guarantee that it would not repeat its past provocative actions in the Gulf.

The Iranian authorities have long been suspicious of the US presence in the region, but these demands appear to raise the stakes significantly and increase the prospects of a prolonged blockade of the strait. Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, reiterated the demands, warning that the US should not test Tehran’s resolve on the issue, as he met with a delegation of Arab ambassadors in Tehran. The supreme national security council’s stance has been endorsed by the Iranian leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who last week accused the US of acting in an untrustworthy manner, as tensions simmered.

Among the demands are:

• An end to US military intervention in the region.
• Withdrawal of US naval and air forces from areas surrounding Iran.
• Lifting of US sanctions.
• An end to the naval blockade.
• Compensation for damage caused during the conflict.
• Release of Iranian assets frozen overseas.
• An end to threats and actions that Tehran considers provocative.

The demands effectively connect the reopening of one of the world’s most important maritime energy corridors to a much wider political settlement between Washington and Tehran.

US officials have repeatedly stated that the blockade of the strait could spark a wider conflict in the region and jeopardise global oil supplies. The UAE has been one of the most vocal opponents of Iran’s actions and on Saturday, a senior official in Abu Dhabi confirmed that one of its ships – the MT Global Hope, was targeted by an Iranian missile, although the crew reported no casualties. The attack adds to rising tensions between Iran and the UAE, which have been strained by issues including Iranian support for armed militias in Yemen and Abu Dhabi’s growing relationships with the US and other western powers..

As the standoff continues, some diplomats and analysts are now cautioning that Iran’s refusal to reopen the strait could have severe consequences for the global economy. One analyst, a veteran of the US State Department, noted that a prolonged closure of the strait could push up global oil prices by as much as 25% and lead to severe disruptions in trade. The implications for the UAE and other Gulf states are also significant, where the economy is under intense pressure, and the loss of oil revenues could deepen economic hardship..

Iran’s actions come in the aftermath of the 2020 US assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, a senior commander in the IRGC, in Baghdad. The US claimed the strike was justified due to Soleimani’s role in supporting militant groups across the region. Iran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at two major US military bases in Iraq..

While tensions eased somewhat in the wake of the conflict, diplomats have long been aware that the underlying issues were not resolved. The standoff now has the potential to escalate into an all-out confrontation between the West and Iran. Meanwhile, a number of international oil companies and trading firms have said they are taking steps to mitigate their exposure to disruptions in the region..

Some analysts have speculated that the blockade could also drive a wedge between the US and its Gulf state allies, as the latter may be forced to seek alternative sources of income. However, a senior US official in Washington has said that the US will continue to support its Gulf allies, while also pressing Iran to return to talks. The stalemate raises the stakes for the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal that the US abandoned in 2018..

Some diplomats have hinted that Iran’s actions may be an attempt to pressure the US and its allies into restoring the JCPOA or negotiating a new deal. The US has said it is ready to re-enter the JCPOA if Iran first takes steps to scale back its nuclear programme and curb its support for militant groups. However, Tehran has refused to back down from its position..

Meanwhile, the strait remains closed, and the tensions are set to continue as the standoff drags into its fifth month. As the situation escalates, the international community is watching with growing anxiety. The world waits with bated breath to see how developments in the strait will unfold..